Lancet study reveals Gaza death toll 'undercounted' by at least 40 percent
The study found that almost 60 percent of the deaths are women, children, and elderly people
A new study published by The Lancet medical journal on 9 January reveals that the death toll from Israel’s genocide in Gaza was most likely undercounted by 41 percent in the first nine months of the war.
The study was carried out by scholars at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Yale University, and other institutions.
It focused on the period between October 2023 and June 2024. The study places the toll up until that point at 64,260, around 8,000 more than the current death toll.
“We estimated 64,260 deaths due to traumatic injury during the study period, suggesting the Palestinian Ministry of Health (MoH) under-reported mortality by 41 percent. The annualized crude death rate was 39.3 per 1000 people, representing a rate ratio of 14.0 compared with all-cause mortality in 2022, even when ignoring non-injury excess mortality,” the study says.
Around 59.1 percent of those killed were women, children, and elderly.
The Lancet highlighted that the Health Ministry had been accurately recording the deaths at the start of the conflict, but its capacity to maintain the reliability of its toll deteriorated due to the Israeli war – which has decimated hospitals and disrupted communications across the strip.
“The escalation of Israeli military ground operations and attacks on healthcare facilities severely disrupted the latter's ability to record deaths electronically. These challenges compelled the MoH to rely on less structured data collection modalities, particularly when hospitals were under siege or experiencing telecommunication blockades. This might have led to incomplete and geographically biased reporting, as seen in other conflict zones where prolonged warfare complicates casualty tracking.”
The Health Ministry death count at the beginning of the war was based entirely on bodies that arrived at Gaza’s hospitals – many of which have been either destroyed or severely damaged.
The Lancet study is based only on deaths from traumatic injury and does not take into account those who may have died as a result of Israel's starvation war or the thousands believed to be trapped under the rubble.
The medical journal reported in June last year that the death toll in Gaza could end up between 149,000 and 598,000 – taking into account direct and indirect deaths.
“Even if the conflict ends immediately, there will continue to be many indirect deaths in the coming months and years” due to disease, destroyed healthcare infrastructure, and severe shortages of food and water, according to the journal at the time.
“In recent conflicts, such indirect deaths range from three to 15 times the number of direct deaths. Applying a conservative estimate of four indirect deaths per one direct death to the 37,396 deaths reported, it is not implausible to estimate that up to 186,000 or even more deaths could be attributable to the current conflict in Gaza,” it added.
Palestinian doctor Ghassan Abu Sittah said recently that there is strong evidence to suggest that the death toll could be around 300,000.
The official death toll in Gaza has recently surpassed 46,000 deaths. Over 109,378 people have been reported injured.
Israel’s campaign has laid waste to much of the enclave, including homes, mosques, schools, hospitals, universities, agricultural land, and water infrastructure, making Gaza largely unlivable.
Amnesty International released a report on 5 December saying there is “sufficient” evidence that Israel is committing genocide against Palestinians in its war on the Gaza Strip.